Sustainable Aviation Fuel Research Is 28% E-Fuels While 77% of US$1,336M in Verified Money Is Two Public Loans Converting Oil Refineries to HEFA

InnoDexis has published its latest Innovation Intelligence Report covering sustainable aviation fuel and cleaner jet fuel, analyzing 76 research records from 60 institutions in 22 countries between 8 October 2025 and 30 October 2026, and 45 corporate records from 40 companies between 1 April and 13 October 2026. The report reveals that the capital is converting refineries while the science is designing their replacement: e-fuels are 28 percent of research records, HEFA is 12 percent and falling, and 77 percent of US$1,336M in verified money is two public bank loans for HEFA conversion.

Key Findings

E-fuels lead research and are gaining fastest. They hold 21 of 76 research records, 28 percent, and gained 7.4 points of share between halves, while HEFA holds 9 records, 12 percent, and lost 5.2 points, and the corporate stream mirrors the inversion with feedstock, supply chain and certification as its largest thread at 33 percent.

Public bank loans dominate the money. Of US$1,336M in verified monetary signals, US$1,026M is two European Investment Bank loans, €500M to Eni for Sannazzaro and €450M to OMV for Schwechat, while the eight public R&D awards total US$31.1M and two private rounds US$90.8M.

Four techniques have research and no commercial counterpart. CO2-to-fuel catalysis has 9 research records and 0 corporate, biomass pretreatment 7 and 0, air quality and contrails 6 and 0 and engine testing 4 and 0, while green hydrogen and electrolysis runs 16 research to 2 corporate.

Certification is the rate limiter. Methanol-to-jet cleared ASTM D7566 Annex 5 through the SAFari project at Fraunhofer ISE with a carbon-based SAF yield above 85 percent by weight, the only annex qualification reported in thirteen months, and an uncertified route cannot be sold as jet fuel.

Announcements outrun commitments. Seven announcements carry US$11.3 billion of project value against US$1,336M verified, 20 of 45 corporate records are memoranda, partnerships or alliances, and only 15 of 45 are rated High momentum, with a mean InnoDexis score of 6.36.

Strategic Insight and Trend Analysis

The defining structural finding is that the capital is converting refineries while the science is designing their replacement. Eni is raising biorefining capacity from 1.65 million tonnes a year to over 3 million by 2028 and OMV is converting Schwechat, yet HEFA is a pathway bounded by finite waste oils and fats, which is why research share is falling. The replacement route, e-fuels, has one certified pathway and almost no financing. Neste revised its emissions-reduction timelines and Gevo withdrew from a US Department of Energy financing process, the first signs that first-generation economics are harder than announced.

The binding constraints differ by route. For e-fuels the constraint is power, with Allied Biofuels’ US$6.1 billion Uzbekistan project needing 2.4 GW of electrolysers, while across the research stream the most-cited barriers are catalyst and process efficiency, 15 of 58 records, and scale-up, 14, so the sector has a scale-up problem rather than a discovery problem.

Air quality is an unpriced exposure. The Paul Scherrer Institute measured ultrafine particles more than ten times background near Zurich Airport and the Tyndall Centre puts non-CO2 effects at around two-thirds of aviation’s climate impact, yet no corporate record addresses them. Germany ties the United States at 19 research records each, with ten of its 19 on e-fuels, and country comparisons are sourcing maps rather than league tables.

Global and Industry Implications

For corporates and R&D teams, including airlines and freight buyers, secure near-term compliance through HEFA volume or transferable attributes, since EVA Air, Deutsche Bank with Lufthansa and Kuehne+Nagel with Google Cloud used book-and-claim rather than fuel at their own airports, and require a named certification scheme behind every claim. Producers should model feedstock to 2035 and ask licensors for a demonstrated continuous run and catalyst-lifetime figure.

For investors and capital allocators, announced project values exceed verified commitments by eight to one, so separate headline value from committed capital before any valuation work. The financing gap is between routes: HEFA conversion is bankable and crowded, while e-fuels need power contracts and offtake certainty, and equipment and licensing, including Velocys, Nextchem, Axens, ANDRITZ and Alfa Laval, is where contracts are being signed.

For policymakers and national innovation bodies, the next tranche of public money can fund more of the same route or the one that must replace it, and funding ASTM qualification campaigns would do more for 2035 volumes than more capacity on a certified route. EU RFNBO design is contested, since Chalmers found the rules could make fossil-free fuels unnecessarily expensive, and non-CO2 effects are an unaddressed regulatory exposure.

InnoDexis Statement

“The capital is converting refineries while the science is designing their replacement — whoever bridges that gap with capital or certification sits where the whole sector has to pass,” noted InnoDexis in its latest intelligence report.

Conclusion

Because the corporate stream covers only 1 April to 13 October 2026, no corporate trend over time is claimed, and the 77 percent loan share is the figure most sensitive to the window, the findings are cross-sectional. The signals to watch are whether a new ASTM annex qualification is announced, whether the Eni and OMV conversions reach commissioning, whether a commercial-scale e-SAF plant reaches a final investment decision in Europe, and whether non-CO2 effects enter an aviation regulation. The complete Sustainable Aviation Fuel & Cleaner Jet Fuel Report October 2026 is available to InnoDexis subscribers and enterprise clients.

About InnoDexis

InnoDexis is a real-time innovation intelligence platform connecting scientific discovery to commercial opportunity. Powered by InnoGraph, its proprietary innovation knowledge graph, the platform maps technologies across the entire lifecycle, from early-stage research (TRL 1) to market deployment (TRL 9), connecting researchers, institutions, startups, companies, products and emerging opportunities.

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